Electoral Governance and Democratic Vulnerability Amid Disaster in the 2024 East Flores Regional Election
Abstract
Previous studies generally examine the implementation of elections in crisis situations from a logistical and administrative perspective, while attention to the interactions between election governance, disaster governance, and democratic vulnerability is still relatively limited. To fill this gap, this study investigates how election governance was implemented during the Mount Lewotobi eruption and how these conditions shaped democratic vulnerabilities in the 2024 East Flores Regency Regional Head Election. This research offers a novel contribution by integrating the perspectives of election governance and democratic vulnerability in a disaster context. Using a qualitative case study approach, data were collected through interviews with 15 key informants, document analysis, and field observations. They were then analyzed using the interactive model of Miles, Huberman, and Saldaña, which includes data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. The results show that disaster conditions not only disrupt election administration but also create democratic vulnerabilities related to voter access, political representation, and election legitimacy. This research contributes to the development of literature on the implementation of regional elections in an emergency context and recommends the development of a disaster-responsive regional election governance framework to strengthen democratic resilience in future regional elections.
References
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Mietzner, M. (2014). Indonesia’s 2014 Elections: How Jokowi Won and Democracy Survived. Journal of Democracy, 25(4), 111–125. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0073
Miles, M. B., Huberman, A. M., & Saldaña, J. (2014). Qualitative Data Analysis: A Methods Sourcebook ((3rd ed.). Sage Publications.
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Nichter, S. (2018). Votes for Survival: Relational Clientelism in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
Noor, M., Hidayaturrahman, M., & Anak Agung Putu, S. (2025). Political Clientelism in Presidential Elections : Voting Behaviour and Social Assistance. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 29(2), 177–192. https://journal.ugm.ac.id/jsp/article/view/94625
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Norris, P. (2015). Why Elections Fail. Cambridge University Press.
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Purnamasari, D. D. (2024). 13.000 Pemilih Terdampak Erupsi Lewotobi, KPU Kaji Opsi Pindahkan TPS ke Pengungsian. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/
Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi.(PVMBG). (2024). Volcanological information and hazard zones of Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki. Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Retrieved from official PVMBG monitoring and hazard information services. https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/pvmbg-turunkan-status-g-lewotobi-dari-awas-ke-siaga.
Sarah, B. (2011). Electoral Malpractice. Oxford University Press.
Stokes, S., Dunning, T., & Nazareno, M. (2013). Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107324909
Su, Y.-P., & Rashkova, E. R. (2024). The COVID-19 pandemic and the electoral performance of governing parties in electoral democracies. International Political Science Review, 45(3), 389–405. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121231195612
Tierney, K. (2014). The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters, Promoting Resilience. Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804791403
Walz, K., Merten, L., Rosenthal, M., Niedringhaus, J., & Helgest, J. (2025). From latest buzzword to conceptual framework: Unraveling the complexities of democratic resilience. Zeitschrift Für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 19(1), 93–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-024-00618-7
Yulyana, E., Nelly, M., Solehudin, A., & Saday, D. P. (2024). General Election Accessibility in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Democracy’s Responsibility to People with Disabilities. Sage Journals, 14(4), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121231195612
Zelin, W. A., & Smith, D. A. (2023). Weather to Vote: How Natural Disasters Shape Turnout Decisions. Political Research Quarterly, 76(2), 553–564. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129221093386
Aji, S. P., Tansriyanarko, D. R., & Fathoni, S. (2025). Manajemen Risiko Bencana Alam dan Rencana Kontingensi pada Hari Pemungutan Suara di TPS: Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Banyumas. Jurnal Tata Kelola Pemilu Indonesia, 7(1), 24–47. https://doi.org/10.46874/s5yhvb85
Aldrich, D. P. (2012). Building resilience: Social capital in post-disaster recovery. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226012896.001.0001
Ali, J. (2020). Kajian Manajemen Krisis Pada Upaya Pencegahan Penyebaran Covid-19 Dalam Pemilihan Serentak Tahun 2020. Jurnal Tata Kelola Pemilu Indonesia, 2(1), 68–82. https://journal.kpu.go.id/index.php/TKP/article/view/196
Alihodžić, S. (2023). Protecting Elections: Risk Management, Resilience-Building and Crisis Management in Elections (4). https://doi.org/10.31752/idea.2023.44
Ashworth, S., Bueno, E., & Friedenberg, A. (2018). Learning about Voter Rationality. American Journal of Political Science, 62(1), 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12334
Aspinal, E., & Sukmajati, M. (2016). Electoral Dynamics in Indonesia: Money Politics, Patronage and Clientelism at the Grassroots (E. Aspinall & M. Sukmajati (eds.)). NUS Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1xxzz2
Badan Informasi Geospasial (BIG). (2024). Indonesian Base Map (RBI) Scale 1:50,000. Cibinong: BIG. https://tanahair.indonesia.go.id/portal-web/
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). (2024). Disaster Information and Eruption Impact Data of Mount Lewotobi. Jakarta: BNPB. https://data.bnpb.go.id/dataset/lewotobi-2024.
Bechtel, M. M., & Hainmueller, J. (2011). How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy. American Journal of Political Science, 55(4), 852–868. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00533.x
Birch, S. (2011). Electoral Malpractice. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199606160.001.0001
Buehler, M. (2010). Decentralisation and Local Democracy in Indonesia: The Marginalisation of the Public Sphere. In E. Aspinall & M. Mietzner (Eds.), Problems of Democratization in Indonesia: Elections, Institutions and Society (pp. 267–285). ISEAS Publishing. https://doi.org/doi:10.1355/9789814279918-018
Cole, S., Healy, A., & Werker, E. (2012). Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief. Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 167–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.05.005
Creswell, J. W. (2016). Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches. Sage Publications (4th ed.).
Croissant, A., & Lott, L. (2025). Democratic Resilience in the Twenty-First Century: Search for an Analytical Framework and Explorative Analysis. Political Studies, 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/00323217251345779
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research. Qualitative Inquiry, 12(2), 219–245. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077800405284363
Hadiz, V. R. (2010). Localising Power in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia: A Southeast Asia Perspective. Stanford University Press.
Healy, A., & Malhotra, N. (2009). Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy. American Political Science Review, 103(3), 387–406. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/S0003055409990104
Higashijima, M., Kadoya, H., & Yanai, Y. (2024). The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance. Public Opinion Quarterly, 88(SI), 472–494. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae022
Hosseinkhani, N. T. (2026). The resilience of local democracy: Natural disasters and the incumbent survival effect. Electoral Studies, 101. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103076
IFES. (2020). Delivering On Democracy’s Promise: Annual Report 2020.
Imami, D., Pojani, D., & Merkaj, E. (2023). Electoral Politics of Disaster: how earthquake and pandemic relief was used to earn votes. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 16(1), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsac042
InaRISK. (2024). Disaster Risk Geospatial Data. Jakarta: BNPB InaRISK. (2024). Disaster Risk Geospatial Data. Jakarta: BNPB. https://inarisk.bnpb.go.id/
James, T. S., & Alihodzic, S. (2020). When Is It Democratic to Postpone an Election? Elections During Natural Disasters, COVID-19, and Emergency Situations. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 19(3), 344–362. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0642
James, T. S., Asplund, A., & Clark, E. (2023). Elections during Emergencies and Crises: Lessons for Electoral Integrity from the Covid-19 Pandemic. International IDEA. https://doi.org/10.31752/idea.2023.24
James, T. S., & Garnett, H. A. (2025). Electoral integrity resilience : protecting elections during global risks , crises , and emergencies global risks , crises , and emergencies. Democratization, 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2025.2551075
James, T. S., & Matlosa, K. (2025). Electoral Governance. In H. A. Garnett & T. S. James (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Integrity. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197777497.013.0009
Mares, I., & Young, L. E. (2016). Buying, Expropriating, and Stealing Votes. Annual Review of Political Science, 19, 267–288. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-060514-120923
Mietzner, M. (2014). Indonesia’s 2014 Elections: How Jokowi Won and Democracy Survived. Journal of Democracy, 25(4), 111–125. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0073
Miles, M. B., Huberman, A. M., & Saldaña, J. (2014). Qualitative Data Analysis: A Methods Sourcebook ((3rd ed.). Sage Publications.
Nelfira, W. (2024). 13 Ribu Lebih Pemilih Pilkada 2024 Terdampak Erupsi Lewotobi, KPU Siapkan Langkah Mitigasi. https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/5791899/
Nichter, S. (2018). Votes for Survival: Relational Clientelism in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
Noor, M., Hidayaturrahman, M., & Anak Agung Putu, S. (2025). Political Clientelism in Presidential Elections : Voting Behaviour and Social Assistance. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 29(2), 177–192. https://journal.ugm.ac.id/jsp/article/view/94625
Norris, P. (2014). Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107280861
Norris, P. (2015). Why Elections Fail. Cambridge University Press.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge Studies in the Theory of Democracy. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511804946
Purnamasari, D. D. (2024). 13.000 Pemilih Terdampak Erupsi Lewotobi, KPU Kaji Opsi Pindahkan TPS ke Pengungsian. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/
Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi.(PVMBG). (2024). Volcanological information and hazard zones of Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki. Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Retrieved from official PVMBG monitoring and hazard information services. https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/pvmbg-turunkan-status-g-lewotobi-dari-awas-ke-siaga.
Sarah, B. (2011). Electoral Malpractice. Oxford University Press.
Stokes, S., Dunning, T., & Nazareno, M. (2013). Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107324909
Su, Y.-P., & Rashkova, E. R. (2024). The COVID-19 pandemic and the electoral performance of governing parties in electoral democracies. International Political Science Review, 45(3), 389–405. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121231195612
Tierney, K. (2014). The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters, Promoting Resilience. Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804791403
Walz, K., Merten, L., Rosenthal, M., Niedringhaus, J., & Helgest, J. (2025). From latest buzzword to conceptual framework: Unraveling the complexities of democratic resilience. Zeitschrift Für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 19(1), 93–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-024-00618-7
Yulyana, E., Nelly, M., Solehudin, A., & Saday, D. P. (2024). General Election Accessibility in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Democracy’s Responsibility to People with Disabilities. Sage Journals, 14(4), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121231195612
Zelin, W. A., & Smith, D. A. (2023). Weather to Vote: How Natural Disasters Shape Turnout Decisions. Political Research Quarterly, 76(2), 553–564. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129221093386
Authors
Electoral Governance and Democratic Vulnerability Amid Disaster in the 2024 East Flores Regional Election. (2026). Journal of Government Science (GovSci) : Jurnal Ilmu Pemerintahan, 7(1), 62-81. https://doi.org/10.54144/govsci.v7i1.153
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